Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that ‘Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.’ It’s only natural to consider a company’s balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies UFO Moviez India Limited (NSE:UFO) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of ‘creative destruction’ where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
Check out our latest analysis for UFO Moviez India
What Is UFO Moviez India’s Net Debt?
As you can see below, UFO Moviez India had ₹945.9m of debt at September 2023, down from ₹1.11b a year prior. However, because it has a cash reserve of ₹926.7m, its net debt is less, at about ₹19.2m.
How Strong Is UFO Moviez India’s Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that UFO Moviez India had liabilities of ₹1.65b due within 12 months and liabilities of ₹882.0m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had ₹926.7m in cash and ₹784.2m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by ₹818.2m.
Given UFO Moviez India has a market capitalization of ₹4.57b, it’s hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it’s clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse. Carrying virtually no net debt, UFO Moviez India has a very light debt load indeed.
In order to size up a company’s debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
UFO Moviez India has a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.035, suggesting a very conservative balance sheet. But EBIT was only 2.5 times the interest expense last year, which shows that the debt has negatively impacted the business, by constraining its options (and restricting its free cash flow). Notably, UFO Moviez India made a loss at the EBIT level, last year, but improved that to positive EBIT of ₹191m in the last twelve months. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can’t view debt in total isolation; since UFO Moviez India will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it’s definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it’s worth checking how much of the earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) is backed by free cash flow. Over the last year, UFO Moviez India saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Our View
UFO Moviez India’s struggle to convert EBIT to free cash flow had us second guessing its balance sheet strength, but the other data-points we considered were relatively redeeming. In particular, its net debt to EBITDA was re-invigorating. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that UFO Moviez India is taking some risks with its use of debt. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn’t really want to see it increase from here. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet – far from it. Be aware that UFO Moviez India is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit concerning…
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don’t even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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Find out whether UFO Moviez India is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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