A study has analyzed UAP sightings across the U.S., revealing that environmental factors and proximity to air traffic and military installations significantly influence sighting reports. This research aids in distinguishing between identifiable objects and true anomalies, emphasizing the importance of contextual understanding in addressing national security concerns and public curiosity about UAPs.
Most observations of Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena typically happen in the American West, where the closeness to public lands, dark skies, and military bases provides increased chances of witnessing unusual objects in the sky.
“This [Tic Tac-shaped object that] had just traveled 60 miles in…less than a minute, was far superior in performance to my brand-new F/A-18F and did not operate with any of the known aerodynamic principles that we expect for objects that fly in our atmosphere.”
In July of 2023, a retired commander in the U.S. Navy David Fravor testified to the House Oversight Committee about a mysterious, Tic Tac-shaped object that he and three others observed over the Pacific Ocean in 2004. The congressional hearings riveted the world by bringing Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) out of the “alien truther” realm and into the mainstream.
As sensor technology has advanced and personal aircraft-use has skyrocketed, our ability to explain strange events has become harder to resolve. The U.S. Department of Defense has increasingly taken UAP, formerly known as Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs), as a serious threat to national security.
A new study led by University of Utah geographers attempts to understand if local environmental factors increase or decrease the number of sighting reports. The authors used data from the National UFO Research Center, and included approximately 98,000 total sighting reports over a 20-year period, from 2001 to 2020. For each county in the contiguous U.S., the researchers analyzed two conditions: Sky view potential, which refers to the area’s light pollution, cloud cover, and tree canopy cover; and the potential for objects to be present in the sky, meaning the proximity to airports and military installations.
In July of 2023, retired commander in the U.S. Navy David Fravor testified to the House Oversight Committee about a mysterious, Tic Tac-shaped object that he and three others observed over the Pacific Ocean in 2004, off the coast of San Diego. According to his testimony, the object traveled 60 miles per hour in less than a minute and “did not operate with any of the known aerodynamic principles that we expect for objects that fly in our atmosphere.” His crew captured the Tic Tac-shaped Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) on video. This is one of three videos that the U.S. military declassified and approved for public release in April of 2020. It’s the only official footage captured by a U.S. Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet that was present at the “2004 Nimitz Incident,” named for the USS Nimitz aircraft carriers on which Fravor’s U.S. Navy fighter jet was based. Credit: United States Navy
The majority of sightings were in western parts of the U.S. due to the region’s physical geography—lots of wide-open spaces and dark skies. UAP-reporting hotspots had credible relationships with air traffic and military activity, suggesting that people are spotting real objects, but not recognizing what they are.
“The idea is that if you have a chance to see something, then it’s more likely that you’re going to see unexplained phenomena in the sky,” said Richard Medina, associate professor of geography at the University of Utah and lead author of the study. “There’s more technology in the sky than ever before so the question is: What are people actually seeing? It’s a tough question to answer, and it is an important one because any uncertainty can be a potential threat to national security.”
Understanding the environmental context of these sightings will make it easier to find explanations for their occurrence and help identify truly anomalous objects that are a legitimate threat.
The paper was recently published in the journal
Hotspot analysis of reported sightings from 2001 to 2020. Credit: Medina, Brewer & Kirkpatrick. Sci Rep (2023)
Traditional academia has mostly avoided UAP research because of the stigma of flying saucers and space invaders. Yet people around the world continue to spot unexplainable objects in the sky. What little research exists tends to rely on firsthand accounts or look for cultural and psychological explanations, which limits the ability to analyze patterns over a large area.
Additionally, legitimate data sources and questionable accounts have limited rigorous study. The authors note that the National UFO Research Center’s data is a public, self-reporting system with no real way to verify hoaxes. However, the authors assert that if the data were entirely invalid due to some psychological and sociological cause, then there would be no spatial pattern. But there is.
“There are many factors that can contribute to the report of anomalous objects,” said Simon Brewer, associate professor of geography at the U and co-author of the study. “By examining the spatial distribution of reports and how they relate to the local environment, we hope to provide some geographical context that may help resolve or understand reports by both the public and in military settings.”
Timeline of the National UFO Research Center reported sightings from 2001 to 2020. Credit: Medina, Brewer & Kirkpatrick. Sci Rep (2023)
Roswell, X-Files, and Starlink
In July of 2022 the U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense, in coordination with the Director of National Intelligence, directed the establishment of the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) as the single authoritative UAP office to lead and synchronize a whole government approach to the issue. Earlier UAP tracking efforts include Project BLUE BOOK, a U.S. Air Force-led project that investigated UFO sightings between 1947 and 1969. Project BLUE BOOK’s most famous report is the Roswell, New Mexico, incident alleging that a flying saucer crashed in the desert town on July 8, 1947, and its alien occupants were recovered by government officials. Many Roswell residents witnessed the unexplainable event, which may have led to the flurry of flying-saucer-sightings that swept the nation. Silence from government officials led to wild speculation of otherworldly visitors and subsequent coverups. Later, the U.S. Air Force disclosed that the incident was caused by a classified, multi-balloon project to detect Soviet nuclear tests.
Many UAP sightings have a natural explanation—the planet DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-49527-x
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