Are UFOs real? How scientists think about aliens

Are aliens real?

Let’s start with the Fermi Paradox, also known as, “Where are all the aliens?”, which refers to the discrepancy between the high likelihood of advanced extraterrestrial life and the lack of conclusive evidence of its existence.

“There are about 300 billion [stars] in our galaxy. The average galaxy has 100 billion stars. And there are 500 billion to 2 trillion galaxies,” says Dr Brad Tucker, an astrophysicist at the Australian National University.

It’s hard to estimate the likelihood a given planet will have life. But if the chances are above zero, you’d think there would be life somewhere in the universe.

So, why hasn’t it made contact? Perhaps there’s a “great filter” that stops civilisations colonising the universe; travelling faster than light may simply be impossible, making exploration relatively slow.

Or perhaps we can’t hear alien signals, or they simply aren’t interested in talking to us.

Generally, astronomers think the universe does hold life, says Tucker.

But they are split on whether that life must be intelligent. Because we evolved from simple lifeforms, we tend to think complex life is inevitable, but the evidence is equivocal, says Tucker. “Life? Yes. But take it up the chain, that’s where the debate diverges.”

Bottom line: aliens may be real.

Are UFOs real?

Given we can’t rule out the existence of aliens altogether, we should start our examination of UFOs with an open mind – they could be aliens! Or … they could be something else.

A scientist starts with an open mind, and then asks: what does the evidence say?

“You’re not saying outright, ‘It’s not true’,” says Tim Mendham, executive officer of the Australian Skeptics. But you’re looking for “something tangible – physical evidence, rather than theory”.

“If you say you can fly, I say, ‘Show me’.”

And the more extraordinary the claim, the more extraordinary the evidence we should demand.

David Grusch, the US “whistleblower” who created a sensation when he told a US congressional hearing that a clandestine government program has retrieved UFOs and possible alien remains, has no photos, no documents, no ship and no bodies. The evidence is classified, he says, or third-hand.

“He has shown no evidence at all, none whatsoever” to back his claims, says Mendham. “He makes passing references to having evidence, ‘But I can’t give it to you now’. Right, thank you very much, next.”

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And we should not accept Grusch’s claims simply because he is a ranking officer on a UFO taskforce. Sceptics ask for the evidence rather than simply believing the word of a higher authority.

What about the videos of things that are hard to explain, such as flying objects displaying extreme acceleration?

Well, we can ask: What makes an alien the best explanation?

“If you’re going to say it’s aliens, you better have the data to say it’s aliens,” says Tucker.

We seek hard evidence, not the eyewitness accounts that fuel most UFO claims, because we humans are very easy to fool. As terrestrial creatures, we spend most of our time looking at things on our eye level. When we look up at the sky, we discover it is full of weird looking stuff!

Venus can sometimes glow like an enormous star. Meteorites and space junk can burn up in the atmosphere. Satellites can catch the sun’s rays in unusual ways. “I’ve been seeing satellite flares for the better part of 30 years. A lot of people who have not might call it a UFO,” says Monash University astronomer Associate Professor Michael Brown. “So we’re pretty cautious with eyewitness reports.”

Grusch claims we may not have detected alien visitors to Earth because they can travel in other dimensions.

This is known as the “dragon in the garage” fallacy. To verify a theory – that aliens can travel through other dimensions – you have to be able to test it. We can’t test or verify Grusch’s multidimensional claims, so as sceptics we shouldn’t entertain them.

Brown “remains very sceptical” about UFOs.

The digital cameras of today are leagues better than the film cameras of the 1940s. But, Brown points out, the UFO photos remain as blurry as ever.

Liam Mannix’s Examine newsletter explains and analyses science with a rigorous focus on the evidence. Sign up to get it each week.